Part 1: Previous Session Recap

Yesterday was a mixed session with a negative finish despite a positive hit rate. We took 7 trades across USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURGBP, and GBPUSD, closing 4 winners and 3 losers, but the net result was -43.7 pips. That tells the real story: the losing trades carried more weight than the winners, which usually points to either poor follow-through after entry or risk that was not being paid properly by the market.

The session was not chaotic, but it was not clean either. FX majors moved in pockets, with USD and GBP pairs offering moments of direction but limited continuity. EURCHF remained sensitive to positioning ahead of the Swiss National Bank risk window, and that is exactly the type of environment where forcing trades can quickly turn a decent read into a poor result.

The main takeaway is simple: selection matters more than activity. A 4W / 3L day should not end down heavily unless average loss size is too large relative to the quality of the setups. Today, the priority is tighter execution, fewer marginal entries, and respect for scheduled event risk.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The focus today is firmly on Switzerland. At 03:30 UTC we have the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and SNB Policy Rate, followed by the SNB Press Conference at 04:00 UTC. This is a high-impact block for CHF pairs, and liquidity can thin sharply around the release. The first move is not always the cleanest move, especially if the rate decision and statement tone do not point in the same direction.

EURCHF is the primary watch. If the SNB sounds more cautious or signals comfort with current policy, CHF could soften and EURCHF may attempt to build higher. If the message is more hawkish or inflation-sensitive than expected, EURCHF can come under pressure quickly. We will be watching whether price accepts above or below the initial post-news range rather than reacting to the first spike.

USDCHF is also worth monitoring, but only if the dollar side stays orderly. A clean CHF-driven move is tradable; a messy mix of CHF repricing and broad USD noise is not. For both pairs, the plan is to let the first volatility wave pass, then look for structure: rejection, retest, or continuation with clear invalidation.

Risk note: spreads can widen around the SNB release and press conference. Position size should be reduced, stops should account for volatility, and no trade is better than chasing a headline candle after the move has already stretched.