Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session was mixed and ultimately negative on the book: 6 trades, 3 winners, 3 losers, and a net result of -46.1 pips. Activity was spread across EURJPY, EURGBP, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, and GBPCHF, with the loss profile showing that direction was not the main issue as much as follow-through and timing.

The pound and yen crosses remained tradable but choppy, especially where momentum faded after the initial move. In that type of tape, breakouts needed confirmation rather than assumption. The key takeaway is straightforward: when the win rate is balanced but the day still closes negative, position management and average loss size deserve more attention than trade count.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main scheduled risk today is at 05:15 UTC, with BOE Governor Bailey speaking. This is high-impact red news for GBP, so sterling pairs may see sharp repricing if the tone shifts around inflation, wage pressure, growth risks, or the future path of rates.

Our primary watchlist is GBPJPY and GBPCHF. GBPJPY remains the cleaner volatility candidate if Bailey’s remarks trigger a broad sterling reaction, but it can widen quickly, so chasing the first spike is not ideal. GBPCHF may offer a more measured read on GBP sentiment, especially if risk appetite is stable and price respects nearby structure.

Plan for the session: reduce size ahead of the speech, wait for the first reaction to settle, and only engage if price confirms direction with a clean hold above or below the post-news range. If spreads widen or the move becomes erratic, standing aside is a valid trade decision.