Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a difficult session and the numbers make that clear: 6 trades, 1 winner, 5 losses, and a net result of -100.0 pips across US500, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY, and EURGBP. The main issue was not one single market, but a session where follow-through was poor and several moves failed to extend after entry.

In this type of tape, the key lesson is to reduce the urge to force recovery trades. When multiple assets are chopping or reversing around intraday levels, preserving capital matters more than trying to win back the day quickly. The better response is tighter selectivity, smaller exposure, and waiting for cleaner confirmation.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main scheduled risk today is the Australian labour market release at 21:30 UTC, with Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate both due. These numbers can move AUD sharply, especially if job creation and the unemployment rate point in opposite directions. A clean upside surprise would likely support the Australian dollar, while weaker hiring or a higher jobless rate could pressure it quickly.

Our primary watchlist is AUDUSD and AUDJPY. For AUDUSD, the focus is whether price can hold above intraday support after the data or whether a downside break attracts momentum sellers. AUDJPY may be more sensitive to the broader risk tone; if equities are heavy and the jobs data disappoints, the pair could see a stronger reaction than AUDUSD.

Plan for volatility around the release. Spreads can widen, first moves can be false, and the best trade may come after the initial reaction rather than inside the first minute. After yesterday’s drawdown, discipline is the edge: wait for structure, avoid oversized positions, and do not chase the first spike.