Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session was mixed on the surface, but the final result was clear: execution produced 3 trades, 2 winners and 1 loser, yet the desk finished down 11.7 pips across NAS100, US30 and US500. That tells us the losing trade carried too much weight relative to the winning setups, which is often more important than the win rate itself.

Index conditions remained reactive, with intraday moves offering opportunities but not much clean follow-through. The main takeaway is practical: when equity indices are rotating quickly, trade size and stop placement matter more than being right twice out of three times. A small negative day is manageable, but it is also a reminder to avoid forcing continuation trades when the market is still digesting direction.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The key scheduled risk today is Canada inflation at 08:30 UTC, with CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y and Trimmed CPI y/y all due at the same time. This is a genuine volatility window for CAD pairs because the Bank of Canada is highly sensitive to underlying inflation trends, not just the headline monthly print.

USDCAD is the primary asset on watch. A hotter inflation set could support CAD and pressure USDCAD lower, especially if price is already trading below intraday resistance. A softer print would likely do the opposite, giving USDCAD room to squeeze higher if liquidity is thin. CADJPY is also worth monitoring for a cleaner reaction if broader risk sentiment stays stable.

Plan-wise, the first move after the release should be treated carefully. Spreads can widen, and the initial spike is not always the real direction. I would rather see price clear a level, pull back, and hold before committing size. If the data is mixed across headline, median and trimmed CPI, the better trade may be no trade until the market chooses a side.