Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a quiet but costly session for the desk. We took one trade in XAUUSD, finished with 0 wins and 1 loss, and closed the day at -303.1 pips. The result is a clear reminder that gold is still trading with very little tolerance for late entries, wide stops, or hesitation once volatility expands.

The important point is not to overreact to one losing trade. The correct response is to review execution, respect the stop, and avoid forcing a recovery position. Ahead of major US inflation data, price action across dollar-sensitive markets was naturally more defensive, with traders reluctant to commit heavily before the next macro catalyst.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today the focus is firmly on the US CPI block at 08:30 UTC: Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y. This is high-impact red news and should be treated as a volatility event rather than a normal technical session. Spreads can widen, first moves can reverse, and clean setups often appear only after the initial reaction has cleared.

Our main watchlist assets are XAUUSD and EURUSD. For XAUUSD, the key question is whether inflation pushes real-yield expectations higher, which would pressure gold, or whether a softer print weakens the dollar and supports a rebound. For EURUSD, the focus is on whether the CPI release creates a clean dollar direction or only a short-lived spike.

Plan for the day: reduce size before the release, avoid market orders during the first seconds of the print, and wait for confirmation around liquidity zones. If the data comes in hot, dollar strength and gold weakness are the first scenarios to assess. If the data misses expectations, a softer dollar and relief bid in metals could develop, but only if follow-through holds after the initial volatility.