Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a difficult session for our XAUUSD book. We took three trades, finished with one winner and two losers, and closed the day at -224.9 pips. The main issue was not participation, but the quality of follow-through. Gold moved in sharp, uneven bursts, and entries that looked acceptable at the time did not receive the continuation needed to protect risk quickly.

From a trading desk perspective, the takeaway is straightforward: when XAUUSD starts rejecting levels aggressively on both sides, size and patience matter more than prediction. A losing day is manageable, but only if we avoid trying to win it back inside the same low-quality structure. The priority now is to reset, reduce emotional carryover, and wait for cleaner confirmation before committing capital.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The Asian session brings a concentrated AUD risk event window, with the Cash Rate, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Rate Statement, and RBA Press Conference all scheduled from 00:30 UTC onward. This is not a routine data release. The rate decision matters, but the market reaction may depend more on the statement language and the press conference tone around inflation, labour conditions, and the timing of any future policy adjustment.

AUDUSD is the primary watch today. We are not interested in guessing the first candle after the announcement. The better opportunity usually comes after the initial spread widening, once the market shows whether the move is being accepted or faded. A sustained break with clean retests may offer a directional setup, while a fast spike and reversal would warn that liquidity was simply cleared on the headline.

XAUUSD remains on the secondary watchlist after yesterday’s drawdown. Gold can react indirectly if the RBA event shifts broader dollar sentiment or risk appetite, but we will require stronger structure before re-engaging. For now, the plan is simple: respect the news window, avoid chasing the first impulse, and only trade when volatility is matched by clear market direction.