Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a difficult but useful session from a risk-control perspective. We closed 2 trades with 1 winner and 1 loser, finishing at -726.1 net pips across BTCUSD and NAS100.

The result tells a simple story: the market offered movement, but follow-through was uneven and the cost of being early was high. NAS100 remained sensitive to rate expectations, while BTCUSD continued to trade with sharp intraday swings rather than clean directional structure. After a session like that, the priority is not to force recovery trades. It is to reduce noise, respect the calendar, and wait for cleaner confirmation.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today carries meaningful event risk, led by USD PPI and Core PPI at 08:30 UTC, followed by Fed Chairman Warsh testifying at 10:00 UTC. On the Canadian side, the BOC Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement, and Overnight Rate decision at 09:45 UTC will be followed by the BOC Press Conference at 10:45 UTC.

For NAS100, the key issue is whether producer inflation reinforces or weakens the market’s rate-cut assumptions. A hot PPI print could pressure risk assets and lift yields, while a softer number may support a relief bid. Either way, the first reaction can be messy, so chasing the initial candle is not attractive unless liquidity and structure confirm the move.

For USDCAD, the BOC block is the main driver. The rate decision matters, but the tone of the statement and press conference may matter more. If the BOC signals caution while US data stays firm, USDCAD could find support. If the BOC sounds less dovish than expected, CAD strength may appear quickly.

Watchlist approach: stay light before the releases, avoid oversized entries into the headlines, and focus on post-news structure. Clean breaks and retests are preferable to guessing the first spike.