Part 1 — Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a poor session for the book and there is no need to dress it up. We took 3 trades across GBPUSD, US30, and NAS100, finishing with 0 winners, 2 losses, and a net result of -236.3 pips.

The damage came from being on the wrong side of momentum while index volatility remained uneven. US30 and NAS100 both showed enough movement to attract entries, but follow-through was inconsistent and stops were hit before clean continuation developed. GBPUSD also failed to offer the type of controlled structure we want before committing risk.

The takeaway is practical: after a session like this, the priority is not to win it back quickly. It is to reduce impulse, respect event risk, and wait for better alignment between price, timing, and liquidity.

Part 2 — Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today is a high-impact USD session. At 08:30 UTC, the market receives Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m, and CPI y/y. That cluster is likely to set the tone for the dollar, Treasury yields, equities, and risk sentiment. Later, Fed Chairman Warsh testifies at 10:00 UTC, followed by BOE Governor Bailey at 16:00 UTC.

GBPUSD is the first asset on watch. The pair has direct exposure to both the US inflation print and Bailey’s comments later in the day. A clean CPI surprise could produce a sharp dollar repricing, but chasing the first candle is not our preferred approach. We want to see whether price accepts above or below the initial CPI range before considering continuation.

NAS100 is the second key market to monitor. Inflation data can quickly shift rate-cut expectations, and that tends to hit growth-sensitive equities hardest. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, NAS100 may face pressure through higher yields. If inflation softens, risk appetite could recover, but only if buyers hold structure after the first volatility spike.

Our plan is defensive into the release: smaller size, wider awareness of slippage, and no entries directly into the 08:30 UTC print. The best trades today are likely to come after the first reaction, once spreads normalize and the market shows whether the move is real or just a liquidity sweep.