Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a poor session and there is no value in dressing it up. The desk logged 8 trades across EURUSD, NAS100, USDSEK, ETHUSD, GBPNOK, BTCUSD and US500, with the reported outcome split showing 1 winner against 3 losers and a net result of -133.5 pips.

The damage came from a market that did not reward follow-through. Index and crypto exposure remained vulnerable to quick reversals, while FX pairs showed enough movement to trigger trades but not enough clean structure to sustain them. After a session like that, the priority is not to win it back quickly. The priority is to reduce size where needed, wait for cleaner levels, and avoid forcing entries before the data risk clears.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today is a macro-driven session. The first key event is GBP GDP m/m at 02:00 UTC, followed by US Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m at 08:30 UTC. That gives us two clear volatility windows: sterling early, then broader USD and risk-asset reaction later in the day.

GBPUSD is the first asset on watch. A stronger UK GDP print could support a push higher, but the cleaner trade will depend on whether price can hold above the first post-release breakout level rather than simply spike and fade. A weak GDP number would put downside pressure back on sterling, especially if liquidity is thin during the early release window.

NAS100 is the second asset to watch into the US retail sales numbers. Strong retail data may revive rate-sensitivity and weigh on high-duration tech if yields push higher. Softer data could support a relief bid, but only if the market reads it as lower-rate friendly rather than growth-negative. For today, patience matters: let the first reaction print, then trade the second structure.