Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s tape was mixed in execution but constructive in outcome. We logged 7 trades across ETHUSD, GBPNOK, NAS100, EURUSD, and US30, with 2 winners, 2 losers, and a net result of +326.1 pips. The headline number was positive, but the session still required patience: risk assets moved in bursts rather than clean trends, and the better opportunities came from waiting for confirmation instead of chasing early volatility.

Equity indices remained sensitive to US rate expectations, while EURUSD traded with a more defensive tone ahead of today’s inflation-linked producer price data. Crypto participation through ETHUSD also showed that appetite for risk is still present, but not without sharp intraday pullbacks. In short, the market rewarded selectivity, not aggression.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main focus today is on USD data at 08:30 UTC, with Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m both due. These releases can move the dollar quickly because they feed directly into inflation expectations and the market’s view of the Fed path. Later, at 14:30 UTC, the Fed Chair nomination vote adds a political layer to the session, although the immediate price reaction may depend more on tone and perceived continuity than the vote itself.

EURUSD is the first asset on watch. A hotter PPI print could support the dollar and pressure the pair lower, especially if yields move higher at the same time. A softer print would likely invite a relief move, but we would still want to see price hold above key intraday support before treating any bounce as tradable.

NAS100 is also worth monitoring. Growth stocks remain highly sensitive to inflation surprises, so the index may react sharply around the release window. If PPI comes in above expectations, upside may struggle unless buyers absorb the first wave of selling. If the data cools, NAS100 could attempt another push higher, but risk should be managed tightly due to the event-driven nature of the session.

Our approach for today is simple: reduce size into the red news window, avoid entering directly into the release, and let spreads normalize before acting. The best trades will likely come after the first impulse, once the market shows whether the move is being accepted or faded.