Part 1: Previous Week Trading Review

Last week was productive, but it was not a week to confuse activity with easy conditions. Across 42 trades, the book closed with 26 winners and 16 losers, generating a net result of 436.2 pips across USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPJPY, USDCAD, NAS100, NZDUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD, ETHUSD, BTCUSD, and EURGBP.

The strongest takeaway was execution discipline across a broad set of instruments. FX majors provided several clean directional windows, while gold and index exposure required more patience around intraday volatility. Crypto trades were more sensitive to liquidity pockets, especially where weekend positioning and risk appetite started to matter more than traditional macro flow.

From a market structure perspective, the dollar remained the central reference point. EURUSD and AUDUSD continued to react sharply around rate expectations, while GBPJPY and XAUUSD offered opportunity but demanded tighter risk control due to wider ranges. The win rate was solid, but the more important feature was that losers were contained and the better setups were allowed enough room to work.

Going into the new week, we are not carrying the assumption that last week’s rhythm will repeat. The calendar ahead is heavy, especially from Wednesday onward. That means cleaner opportunities may come after the first volatility wave, not necessarily during the initial headline reaction.

Part 2: Global Macro Weekly Outlook

This is a high-impact macro week, and the main theme is central bank confirmation. Markets will be looking for whether policymakers validate current rate expectations or push back against them. The biggest risk for traders is not only the decision itself, but the language around inflation persistence, labor market resilience, and future policy flexibility.

The week begins with RBA Governor Bullock speaking late Monday UTC. That event matters because Australia will then release CPI data on Tuesday, including monthly CPI, yearly CPI, and trimmed mean CPI. AUD pairs may be vulnerable to sharp repricing if the inflation mix comes in materially hotter or softer than expected. For AUDUSD and AUD crosses, we prefer to wait for the data reaction to settle before chasing the first move.

Wednesday brings the main event: the Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC Statement, and press conference. The rate decision may be less important than Chair communication around the next policy step. If the Fed sounds comfortable with inflation progress, the dollar could come under pressure and risk assets may find support. If the Fed emphasizes sticky prices or financial conditions that remain too loose, USD strength and equity volatility could return quickly.

Thursday is especially dense. The BOE releases its Monetary Policy Report, policy summary, vote split, and Official Bank Rate. Sterling will likely trade the vote distribution as much as the headline decision. A divided MPC could create two-way volatility in GBPUSD and EURGBP, while a more unified message may give markets a clearer directional impulse.

Also on Thursday, the US releases Advance GDP and Core PCE Price Index data. This combination is important because it connects growth and inflation in one window. Strong GDP with firm Core PCE would make it harder for the market to price an easier Fed path. Softer growth and cooler inflation would support the opposite case. NAS100 and XAUUSD are likely to be sensitive around this sequence.

Late Thursday into Friday, attention shifts to Japan with the BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report, and press conference. JPY pairs can move aggressively when the BOJ adjusts its inflation language or signals discomfort with currency weakness. GBPJPY and USDJPY traders should be particularly cautious around liquidity gaps and delayed reactions during the press conference.

Canada closes the week with monthly GDP on Friday. USDCAD may be driven first by Fed and US data, then by the local Canadian growth print. If oil sentiment remains stable, GDP could become the cleaner domestic catalyst for CAD direction. If risk appetite weakens globally, CAD may trade more as a risk currency than a pure data story.

Weekend crypto tone is constructive but still fragile. BTCUSD and ETHUSD have held broader bid support, yet participation remains selective rather than euphoric. With the FOMC ahead, crypto traders should respect the possibility that dollar repricing and real-rate expectations spill into digital assets. We will treat weekend strength as useful information, but not as confirmation until liquidity improves after the weekly open.

Our plan for the week is simple: reduce size into major releases, avoid entering directly into central bank headlines, and prioritize post-news structure over prediction. This is the type of calendar where patience can be more profitable than being early.