Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a poor session from a performance standpoint. The desk took 8 trades, closed 2 winners and 6 losers, and finished down 165.0 net pips across USDJPY, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD, EURCHF and EURUSD.

The main issue was not just direction, but market quality. Several pairs moved in short bursts, then reversed before follow-through could build. That type of tape punishes late entries and wide exposure across correlated dollar pairs. After a day like that, the priority is not to win it all back quickly; it is to reduce noise, tighten selection, and let the next high-quality setup earn attention.

From a risk perspective, today starts with a clean slate but not a blank memory. When the prior session shows a 2W / 6L profile, size discipline matters. If volatility expands around the data, chasing the first move is the easiest mistake to make.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The red-news calendar is heavy and concentrated around GBP and USD. GBP GDP m/m lands at 02:00 UTC, followed by a major US data cluster at 08:30 UTC: Core PPI, PPI, Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Later, BOE Governor Bailey speaks at 22:00 UTC, with Fed Chairman Warsh due at 23:30 UTC.

GBPUSD is the first asset on watch. The GDP print can set the early sterling tone, but the larger move may depend on whether US inflation and consumption data confirm or challenge the dollar’s current positioning. A stronger US PPI and retail sales combination would likely support the dollar and pressure rallies in GBPUSD. A softer mix could open room for a corrective bounce, but only if price holds above the post-data reaction low.

USDJPY is also worth monitoring around the US release. This pair is sensitive to US yield expectations, so PPI and retail sales can create sharp repricing. The cleanest approach is to mark the pre-news range, wait for the first liquidity sweep, and avoid entering directly into the initial spike. If spreads widen or candles become disorderly, standing aside is a position too.

For today, the plan is simple: trade fewer assets, respect the news windows, and let structure confirm the bias after the data rather than guessing before it.