Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s tape was productive but not one-way. The desk closed 13 trades with 9 wins and 4 losses, finishing at +431.9 net pips across AUDCHF, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, US30, EURGBP, EURUSD, CADCHF, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, and US500.

The stronger contribution came from staying selective around momentum rather than forcing entries after the first move. Index exposure in US30 and US500 remained tradable, while GBP and gold offered cleaner intraday swings. The main takeaway is simple: performance was strong, but the number of instruments traded means discipline on size and correlation remains important today.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The key scheduled risk is the UK Claimant Count Change at 02:00 UTC. This is a high-impact GBP release, so the first reaction can be sharp, especially if the print challenges the current labour-market narrative. For us, the priority is not predicting the number; it is waiting for the market to show whether the move is accepted or quickly faded.

GBPUSD is the main watch. A clean break with follow-through could offer continuation, but a spike into nearby liquidity followed by rejection would be a better setup for mean reversion. GBPJPY is also on the list because it can amplify sterling moves when risk sentiment is steady, though spreads and slippage should be respected around the release.

Plan for today: reduce exposure before the data, avoid entering directly into the first candle, and let price settle. If volatility expands but structure stays clean, we will look for confirmation entries after the initial imbalance is absorbed.