Part 1 – Previous Session Review

Yesterday, 13 September 2026, we stayed in capital preservation mode and executed zero trades. That was not inactivity for its own sake; it was a deliberate decision to avoid forcing entries while the market offered limited clean structure and no compelling risk-to-reward setup.

The session was best treated as a read-only environment. When volatility is thin or direction is poorly defined, the edge is often in waiting rather than participating. Protecting capital keeps us flexible for cleaner catalysts, and today brings one through Canadian inflation data.

Part 2 – Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main focus today is the Canadian CPI release at 08:30 UTC, including CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Trimmed CPI y/y. This is high-impact CAD news and can quickly change short-term pricing around Bank of Canada expectations, especially if the core inflation measures diverge from consensus.

USD/CAD is the primary asset on watch. A hotter inflation print could support CAD and pressure USD/CAD lower, but we will need confirmation through post-news structure rather than chasing the first spike. A softer print may lift USD/CAD if traders reduce expectations for a restrictive BoC stance.

CAD/JPY is also worth monitoring because it can react strongly when domestic CAD data meets broader risk sentiment. If the CPI release is firm and equity sentiment remains stable, CAD/JPY may find buyers; if the data disappoints or risk appetite fades, upside follow-through could be limited.

Execution plan: let the release clear, wait for spreads to normalize, then assess whether price accepts above or below the first reaction range. No trade is required if the move is disorderly. The priority remains disciplined risk, not headline-driven impulse trading.