Part 1: Previous Session Recap

Yesterday’s session was a reminder that win rate and profitability are not the same thing. We closed 5 trades across EURGBP, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, and GBPCHF, with 3 winners and 2 losers, but the book still finished at -4.6 pips.

The damage was limited, which matters, but the takeaway is clear: execution was acceptable while payoff was not. When the market is moving in short bursts rather than clean extensions, partial profits and stop placement become more important than simply being directionally right. GBP pairs remained active, but not especially forgiving, and the broader FX tape continued to reward patience over frequency.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main event today is Canada labor data at 08:30 UTC, with Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate due at the same time. This is high-impact CAD risk, so we should expect wider spreads and fast repricing if the headline and unemployment components point in the same direction.

USD/CAD is the primary watch. A strong jobs print with a lower unemployment rate would likely pressure USD/CAD lower, especially if price is already sitting below intraday resistance. A weak employment number or higher unemployment rate could produce a sharp squeeze higher, particularly if liquidity is thin around the release.

CAD/JPY is the secondary watch for momentum traders. It can react cleanly when Canadian data surprises and risk sentiment is stable, but it is less attractive if broader market volatility picks up at the same time. For both pairs, the plan is simple: avoid entering directly into the release, let the first spike settle, then look for confirmation through structure rather than chasing the first candle.