Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a measured session rather than a trend day. We took three trades on the US500, finishing with two winners, one loser, and a net gain of 17.3 pips. The index offered enough intraday range to work with, but follow-through was selective and required patience around the mid-session chop.

The key takeaway was that buyers still defended pullbacks, but momentum was not clean enough to justify chasing extended moves. The profitable trades came from waiting for structure to confirm rather than reacting to the first impulse. The losing trade was contained, which matters on a day where price action could easily punish oversized conviction.

Overall, it was a solid but not aggressive performance. The market rewarded disciplined execution and punished late entries. That tone is important heading into today, where the calendar carries several high-impact risks.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s focus shifts firmly to macro risk. CAD GDP m/m at 08:30 UTC can create movement in Canadian dollar pairs, especially USDCAD. A stronger GDP print could support CAD in the short term, while a weak number may keep pressure on the currency. As always with GDP releases, the first move can be noisy, so confirmation after the initial spike is preferred.

For USD-linked assets, the larger risk window begins at 10:00 UTC with Fed Chairman Warsh speaking and the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision. These events can affect expectations around the labour market and rate path. The US500 remains a key asset to watch because equity indices are sensitive to any shift in Fed tone, especially before the Jackson Hole Symposium at 12:15 UTC.

Our primary watchlist today is US500 and USDCAD. For US500, we are watching whether buyers can hold above short-term support after yesterday’s constructive close, or whether hawkish commentary triggers a deeper risk-off move. For USDCAD, the GDP release is the first catalyst, but USD reaction later in the day may decide whether any early CAD move holds.

Risk management should stay tighter than usual. Today is not about predicting every headline; it is about identifying when the market has accepted the news and then trading the resulting structure. Avoid entering directly into the release unless that is part of a defined news strategy.