Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session, dated 2026-08-16, remained in capital preservation mode. No trades were executed, which was the correct decision given the lack of clean risk-to-reward conditions and the absence of a strong directional setup worth forcing.

From a desk perspective, the main takeaway was discipline rather than activity. When volatility is uneven and price action does not offer defined structure, staying flat protects both capital and decision quality. The objective is not to trade every session, but to be available when the market is offering a genuine edge.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The focus today is firmly on Canada, with CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Trimmed CPI y/y all scheduled for 08:30 UTC. This is a high-impact inflation cluster for the Canadian dollar, so we should expect a sharper reaction if the data materially deviates from consensus.

USD/CAD is the primary asset on watch. A hotter inflation print could support CAD strength and pressure USD/CAD lower, but the better trade is likely to come after the first reaction, once spreads normalize and the market shows whether the move is being accepted or faded.

CAD/JPY is also worth monitoring because it combines Canadian inflation risk with broader risk sentiment. If the CPI data surprises higher while equities remain stable, CAD/JPY could attract momentum buyers. If risk appetite weakens, however, the pair may struggle even on supportive Canadian data.

Our approach is to avoid guessing the headline. We want confirmation through structure: clean breaks, retests, and controlled volatility. If price simply spikes and reverses without follow-through, staying patient remains the best trade.