Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session was active but not clean. We logged 7 trades across EURJPY, USDCHF, GBPJPY, XAUUSD, and USDJPY, finishing with 3 winners and 4 losers for a net gain of 38.4 pips.

The positive close came from keeping losing trades contained rather than from a smooth directional tape. JPY crosses remained tradeable, but they required patience as intraday swings were uneven. XAUUSD also showed enough movement to offer opportunity, though entries needed tighter execution because follow-through was inconsistent.

Overall, the takeaway is straightforward: the book finished green, but the win rate reminds us not to overread the result. Risk discipline did the heavy lifting.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main risk event today is the New Zealand labour market release at 18:45 UTC, with Employment Change q/q and the Unemployment Rate both due. This is high-impact data for NZD because it feeds directly into expectations around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy path.

NZDUSD is the primary asset on watch. A stronger employment print with a lower unemployment rate could support NZD buying, especially if price is already holding above intraday support. A weak report would likely pressure the pair and could trigger a faster downside move if liquidity is thin around the release.

AUDNZD is also worth monitoring because it can offer a cleaner read on relative NZD strength without the direct USD component. If the data surprises positively, AUDNZD may come under pressure; if the numbers disappoint, a rebound is possible.

Plan for wider spreads and sharper candles around the announcement. I do not want to chase the first reaction. The better trade is usually after the first impulse, once price confirms whether the move is being accepted or rejected.