Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session was modest but useful from a read-through perspective. We took two trades across EURUSD and BTCUSD, finishing with one win, one loss, and a net gain of 1.4 pips. That is not a headline result, but it does show the value of staying selective when follow-through is limited.

EURUSD remained relatively contained, with intraday moves lacking the clean momentum needed for larger extension trades. BTCUSD was more active, but still required tight execution, as short bursts of volatility did not always translate into stable trend structure. Overall, the better approach was to avoid forcing size and respect the fact that the market was offering limited confirmation.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main scheduled risk today is the UK Claimant Count Change at 02:00 UTC. This is a high-impact GBP release because it can shift expectations around the labour market and, by extension, the Bank of England policy path. A higher-than-expected claimant count would generally point to softer employment conditions and could weigh on sterling, while a lower print may support GBP if yields react positively.

GBPUSD is the primary asset on watch. I will be looking for liquidity to build around the pre-news range, then watching whether price breaks and accepts beyond that range after the release. A fast spike without follow-through is not enough; the cleaner opportunity usually comes after spreads settle and the first reaction is either confirmed or rejected.

EURGBP is also worth monitoring as a secondary GBP read. If the data surprises meaningfully, EURGBP may offer a clearer expression of sterling weakness or strength, especially if EURUSD remains quiet. The priority today is patience: let the news print, wait for market depth to normalize, and avoid chasing the first candle.