Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a light but negative session for the book. We took one trade in ETHUSD, which closed as a loss for -50.3 pips. There is not much to dress up here: the execution sample was small, and the result mainly reminds us that crypto remains unforgiving when momentum fades and liquidity thins.

The key takeaway is risk control. One losing trade is manageable, but it becomes a problem only if we chase the next setup or widen stops to force a recovery. For now, the priority is to keep position sizing disciplined and wait for cleaner structure before stepping back into higher-volatility markets.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main event today is New Zealand. At 22:00 UTC we have the Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement, followed by the RBNZ Press Conference at 23:00 UTC. This is a high-impact block for NZD pairs, and the market reaction can be sharp if the statement shifts expectations around inflation, growth, or the next policy move.

NZDUSD is the primary asset on watch. A clear hawkish tone from the RBNZ could support a push higher, but only if price holds above nearby intraday support after the first spike. If the statement is softer than expected, NZDUSD could quickly rotate lower as rate expectations are repriced.

AUDNZD is also worth monitoring because it often gives a cleaner relative-value read on New Zealand dollar strength. Around the release, spreads may widen and false breaks are common, so we prefer waiting for the first reaction to settle before considering entries. No need to be first; the better trade is usually the one taken after the initial noise clears.