Part 1 — Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a low-output but clean session for the desk. We took one EURUSD trade, closed it as a winner, and finished with a net gain of 2.6 pips. That is not a headline result, but it is the kind of controlled day that matters when the broader calendar is about to get heavier.

EURUSD traded with limited follow-through, and the better approach was to avoid forcing continuation after the first move. Liquidity was acceptable, but conviction was thin, so protecting the book took priority over chasing size. The main positive was execution discipline: one trade, no loss, no overtrading.

Part 2 — Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s calendar is more sensitive, with three red-impact items in a tight window: BOE Governor Bailey speaks at 09:00 UTC, Fed Chairman Warsh also speaks at 09:00 UTC, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 10:00 UTC. The overlap between central bank commentary and US growth data raises the risk of sharp, uneven price action.

EURUSD remains the primary watch. The pair may stay reactive to the dollar side until the ISM print is out. A stronger PMI could support USD demand and pressure EURUSD lower, while a softer reading may reopen upside, but only if yields and risk sentiment confirm the move.

GBPUSD is also in focus because Bailey’s comments can quickly shift short-term sterling pricing. The key risk is a two-step move: an initial reaction to BOE language, followed by a second move once US data hits. Traders should be careful with entries around 09:00–10:15 UTC, as spreads and false breaks can widen during that window.

Our plan is to keep size modest ahead of the releases, wait for the first volatility burst to settle, and avoid treating speech headlines as clean directional signals unless price structure confirms them. Today is less about prediction and more about execution around liquidity.