Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday, 9 June 2026, we executed no trades. Capital preservation mode remained active, which was the correct posture given the proximity of major inflation and central bank risk. When the calendar is loaded with market-moving data, forcing entries before the event often creates poor reward-to-risk conditions.

The session was less about finding activity and more about avoiding unnecessary exposure. Liquidity was likely to stay thinner ahead of the CPI release and the Bank of Canada decision, with price action vulnerable to false breaks and sharp reversals. In that environment, no position is still a position.

Our focus remains on clean execution after the information is released, not prediction before it. The priority is to let volatility expand, identify whether the move is accepted or rejected, and only then consider risk.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s main risk window starts at 08:30 UTC with the full U.S. CPI package: Core CPI month-on-month, Core CPI year-on-year, headline CPI month-on-month, and headline CPI year-on-year. This is a direct volatility trigger for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, indices, and metals.

At 09:45 UTC, attention shifts to Canada with the Bank of Canada rate statement and overnight rate decision, followed by the 10:30 UTC press conference. That makes USD/CAD the cleanest FX asset on the watchlist today, because both sides of the pair have high-impact catalysts within a short window.

For USD/CAD, the first reaction after U.S. CPI may not be the final move. A hot inflation print can initially support the dollar, while the BoC decision and tone can later reshape the pair. We want to see whether price holds above or below the post-CPI range rather than chasing the first spike.

The second asset in focus is the S&P 500. Equity risk will be sensitive to whether CPI supports a higher-for-longer rates narrative or gives the market room to price easier financial conditions. A fast move through the prior day’s high or low should be treated carefully unless it is supported by volume and acceptance after the first volatility burst.

Trading plan: stay flat into the releases unless already protected, wait for spreads to normalize, then assess structure. The best setups today are likely to come after the first impulse, not during it. If the market only delivers noise, we remain patient and protect capital.