Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s trading was clean and controlled, with 2 trades taken and both closing in profit. The book finished at 2 wins, 0 losses, and +37.7 net pips across USDJPY and USDCHF.

The better opportunities came from dollar-led momentum rather than broad risk appetite. Execution quality mattered: entries were selective, exposure was kept reasonable, and there was no need to force extra trades after the initial setups paid. That is the type of session we want to protect, not overextend.

Market structure remains sensitive to U.S. rate expectations, so the focus now shifts from yesterday’s execution to today’s event risk. After a strong session, the main job is to avoid giving back gains during headline volatility.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s key risk window is 08:30 UTC, with the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m and Preliminary GDP q/q both due at the same time. This is a meaningful combination: Core PCE speaks directly to inflation pressure, while GDP gives the market a read on growth momentum. Together, they can quickly reshape dollar pricing.

EUR/USD is the first asset on watch. A hotter Core PCE print or firmer GDP number could support the dollar and pressure the pair lower, especially if price fails near short-term resistance. A softer inflation reading, however, would likely invite dollar selling and could trigger a squeeze higher.

XAU/USD is also worth monitoring. Gold will be sensitive to the real-yield reaction after the data. Strong U.S. numbers may weigh on gold if yields push higher, while weaker data could support bids as traders reassess the Fed path.

Plan for wider spreads and fast initial moves around 08:30 UTC. The first reaction is often noisy, so patience is important. We prefer confirmed structure after the release rather than chasing the first candle. If volatility expands without clean levels, standing aside is a valid trading decision.