Previous Session Review

Yesterday’s session was constructive but not straightforward. We closed with 2 trades, splitting the book 1 win and 1 loss, for a net gain of 743.5 pips across SOLUSD and GBPNOK. The result was driven more by directional follow-through than by broad market ease, which matters because it tells us conditions were selective rather than uniformly supportive.

SOLUSD provided the cleaner opportunity, with crypto still capable of expanding quickly once momentum and liquidity align. GBPNOK, by contrast, was a reminder that cross pairs can stay uneven and react sharply when local flows overpower the broader macro theme. That mix is worth noting going into today: headline performance was strong, but underlying price action was not universally clean. In practical terms, that argues for keeping size disciplined and avoiding the temptation to chase extended moves late in the session.

Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The key event on today’s calendar is the 14:00 UTC release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This is a classic volatility catalyst for the US Dollar because traders will be looking for any shift in tone around inflation persistence, growth risks, and the committee’s tolerance for keeping policy restrictive for longer. The first move after the release can be noisy, so the better trade is often the second move, once the market decides whether the language is genuinely hawkish, dovish, or largely in line with expectations.

Our primary watchlist asset is USD pairs, especially those that react cleanly to rate repricing. If the minutes lean firmer than expected, the Dollar could catch a bid as yields reprice higher. If the tone is softer or reveals more concern about downside growth, that support may fade quickly. A secondary asset to watch is SOLUSD. While it is not directly tied to the Fed in the same way as FX majors, crypto remains sensitive to shifts in liquidity expectations and broad risk appetite. A hawkish read from the minutes could pressure speculative assets, while a softer interpretation may help risk sentiment stabilize.

Into the release, the tactical approach is simple: stay patient before 14:00 UTC, respect spread expansion and false breaks immediately after the headline, and focus on whether post-news price holds above or below the first impulse zone. Today is less about predicting every tick and more about reacting cleanly to confirmed structure once the market shows its hand.