Part 1 — Previous Week Trading Review

Last week was not a good one for the book. The strategy closed 35 trades with 11 winners and 24 losers, finishing at -1078.2 net pips across GBPJPY, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, EURJPY and XAUUSD. That is a clear drawdown week, not something to dress up.

The damage was concentrated in markets that were already vulnerable to sharp two-way movement: yen crosses, gold and USD pairs. GBPJPY and EURJPY remain structurally attractive when trends are clean, but they punish late entries and loose stops when volatility widens. XAUUSD also continued to behave like a macro instrument rather than a simple technical market, reacting quickly to shifts in dollar pricing and rate expectations.

The main takeaway is risk control. When a losing sequence expands across correlated instruments, the problem is rarely one single trade. It is usually exposure clustering, reduced signal quality, or forcing continuation trades in a market that has moved into digestion. The practical adjustment for the week ahead is simple: smaller initial size, fewer correlated positions, and less willingness to average into volatility before major data.

A losing week does not invalidate the process, but it does require discipline. The priority now is not to recover the loss quickly. The priority is to trade cleaner setups, protect capital, and let the next high-quality market condition do the work.

Part 2 — Global Macro Weekly Outlook

This is a heavy macro week, and the calendar is front-loaded with central bank risk in Australia before shifting into the main global inflation test from the United States. All times below are UTC.

Tuesday, 11 August — AUD: RBA Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement and Press Conference

The Reserve Bank of Australia opens the week with a full policy package at 00:30 UTC, followed by the press conference at 01:30 UTC. The cash rate decision matters, but the bigger market reaction may come from the tone around inflation persistence, wage pressure, household demand and whether the RBA is comfortable keeping policy restrictive for longer.

For AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD, the risk is not only the headline decision. A hold with hawkish guidance can still support the Australian dollar, while a hold paired with softer inflation language could pressure AUD quickly. Asian session liquidity can amplify moves, so traders should avoid assuming that the first spike is the real direction.

Wednesday, 12 August — USD: CPI and Core CPI

US CPI at 08:30 UTC is the key event of the week. Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m and CPI y/y will all be watched closely because the market is still highly sensitive to the path of Federal Reserve policy. A hotter print would likely support the dollar and US yields, pressure gold, and create risk-off conditions in higher beta FX. A softer print could do the opposite, particularly if it improves expectations for easier policy ahead.

For XAUUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF, this is the major volatility window. Gold may remain difficult to trade cleanly until the data is out because positioning can shift fast when real yields move. USDJPY also deserves caution because it can react to both dollar strength and changes in global yield appetite.

Thursday, 13 August — GBP GDP and US PPI

UK GDP m/m is due at 02:00 UTC. This will be important for sterling because the Bank of England is balancing weak growth signals against inflation concerns. A stronger growth reading may give GBP some support, especially on crosses, while a weak print could reopen downside pressure if markets lean toward a softer policy outlook.

Later the same day, US Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m arrive at 08:30 UTC. PPI is not usually as explosive as CPI, but it matters this week because it can confirm or challenge the CPI signal. If CPI is hot and PPI also shows firm pipeline inflation, the dollar may stay bid. If CPI and PPI diverge, markets may become choppy rather than directional.

Weekend crypto commentary

Crypto is trading through the weekend in a thinner liquidity environment, so price action should be treated with caution. Bitcoin and Ethereum can push through short-term levels on reduced depth, but those weekend moves often need confirmation once traditional markets reopen. The real test comes after Monday liquidity returns and especially after US CPI. If yields rise and the dollar strengthens, crypto may struggle to hold aggressive upside breakouts. If inflation data comes in softer, risk appetite could improve and support another attempt higher.

The broad plan for the week is patience. There are enough scheduled catalysts to create real opportunities, but also enough event risk to punish overtrading. After last week’s drawdown, the right approach is to trade around the data, not blindly through it.