Part 1: Weekly Trading Recap — A Difficult Week, Kept in Context

Last week was not a clean one for the book. We closed with 19 trades, recording 6 wins and 12 losses, for a net result of -1443.9 pips across XAUUSD, BTCUSD, SOLUSD, US30, NZDUSD, ETHUSD, AUDUSD, NAS100, GBPUSD, and EURUSD.

The headline number needs to be treated with some care because pip totals across gold, crypto, indices, and FX do not carry the same point value or volatility profile. Still, the direction of the week is clear: execution did not line up well enough with market conditions, and the loss distribution tells us that we were too exposed to chop and reversal risk across several uncorrelated instruments.

The main lesson is not to overreact, but also not to excuse the drawdown. When a week shows repeated losses across metals, crypto, indices, and majors, the issue is usually not one bad pair. It is often market selection, timing, or staying active when the tape is not rewarding continuation. This is where discipline matters most: reduce size where necessary, avoid forcing recovery trades, and let the next high-quality setup earn back risk one trade at a time.

From a structure perspective, the week favored patience. Equity indices remained sensitive to rate expectations, gold continued to react sharply to real-yield and dollar moves, and crypto remained vulnerable to liquidity pockets. That is a poor environment for chasing late entries. For the coming week, the priority is simple: cleaner levels, tighter invalidation, and less tolerance for mid-range trades.

Part 2: Global Macro Weekly Outlook

This is a Sunday briefing, so the focus now shifts from recap to preparation. The week ahead has several high-impact releases, with inflation and central bank policy at the center of the calendar. The key risk is not just the data itself, but whether markets use the data to reprice rate expectations into the second half of Q3.

Monday begins with Canada. At 08:30 UTC, Canada releases CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Trimmed CPI y/y. This is the main event for CAD pairs early in the week. The Bank of Canada has been watching underlying inflation closely, so the trimmed and median measures may matter more than the headline monthly print. A sticky inflation reading would support CAD through firmer rate expectations, while a softer set could pressure the currency, especially if oil is not providing support.

Later on Monday, at 18:45 UTC, New Zealand releases CPI q/q. NZD has been sensitive to growth concerns and rate expectations, so this print can create wide moves in NZDUSD and AUDNZD. Liquidity can be thinner around that session, which means spreads and slippage deserve extra attention. If the inflation number surprises strongly in either direction, we should expect the first move to be fast and the second move to be more tradable after the initial volatility clears.

Tuesday turns to the UK labor market, with Claimant Count Change due at 02:00 UTC. Sterling traders will be looking for signs of labor market cooling. A weaker employment backdrop can reduce pressure on the Bank of England, while a resilient labor market keeps the inflation problem more complicated. GBPUSD and EURGBP should be watched around the release, but the bigger sterling event arrives the next day.

On Wednesday at 02:00 UTC, the UK releases CPI y/y. This is likely one of the most important data points of the week. UK inflation has historically been stubborn, and any upside surprise could push rate-cut expectations further out. For GBPUSD, the reaction will also depend on the US dollar backdrop, but a clean inflation surprise can still drive sterling direction on the day. For EURGBP, the print may create a more direct UK-versus-Europe repricing.

Also on Wednesday, at 21:30 UTC, Australia releases Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. AUD pairs can move sharply on this combination, particularly if the employment change and unemployment rate point in the same direction. Strong jobs data would support the argument that the Reserve Bank of Australia has less room to ease, while a weak labor print would likely weigh on AUDUSD and could lift downside pressure on risk-sensitive AUD crosses.

Thursday is the ECB day. At 08:15 UTC, the Eurozone receives the Main Refinancing Rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement, followed by the ECB Press Conference at 08:45 UTC. If the rate decision is widely expected, the press conference becomes the real driver. Traders will focus on language around inflation persistence, wage pressure, growth softness, and whether policymakers are comfortable with market pricing for future cuts. EURUSD, EURGBP, and European index sentiment may all react.

For trading conditions, this calendar argues for caution around release windows. We do not need to predict every number. We need to know where liquidity is likely to thin out, where spreads may widen, and where a stop placed too close to the market can be taken by noise rather than a true invalidation. The best setups this week are likely to come after the first reaction, not during the first seconds of the release.

Weekend crypto note: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana remain important risk gauges heading into the new week. Weekend trading has shown that crypto liquidity can still exaggerate moves when traditional markets are closed. If BTC holds above key short-term support into Monday, it may help risk appetite in NAS100 and broader speculative assets. If weekend strength fades quickly, it would be a warning that crypto traders are still selling rallies rather than building fresh exposure.

After a poor performance week, our job is not to get aggressive simply because a new calendar is full of opportunity. The professional response is to trade smaller when conditions require it, wait for confirmation after high-impact news, and avoid turning macro volatility into emotional decision-making. The market will offer enough chances; we only need to take the ones that fit the plan.