Part 1: Previous Week Trading Review

Last week was a difficult one from a trade execution and market-structure perspective. The desk closed 13 trades across SOLUSD, ETHUSD, GBPUSD, NAS100, BTCUSD, EURUSD and XAUUSD, with 5 winners and 6 losers recorded in the simple win/loss count. Net performance finished at -387.5 pips.

The loss profile points to a week where volatility was present, but follow-through was uneven. Crypto and index exposure added speed to the book, while FX and gold were not clean enough to offset the drawdown. In this type of tape, being directionally right for a few hours was not always enough; entries needed tighter confirmation and exits had to be more disciplined around failed continuation.

The main takeaway is practical: after a negative week, the priority is not to immediately recover the loss, but to reduce avoidable risk. That means smaller initial size, less overlap between correlated assets, and a stronger preference for trades aligned with clear macro catalysts rather than low-conviction technical breaks.

Part 2: Global Macro Weekly Outlook

As we head into the new week, the calendar is more focused than crowded, but the events that matter are capable of moving the dollar, rates, commodity currencies and risk assets.

• Monday, July 6 – USD ISM Services PMI at 10:00 UTC: This is the first major test for the dollar. Services remain central to the inflation and growth story in the United States. A stronger print would support the idea that demand is still resilient, which could keep US yields firm and pressure gold, EURUSD and risk-sensitive assets. A softer print would likely weaken the dollar and give equities and crypto some breathing room, provided the market does not interpret it as a deeper growth warning.
• Tuesday, July 7 – NZD Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement at 22:00 UTC, followed by the Press Conference at 23:00 UTC: The kiwi will be highly sensitive to both the rate decision and the guidance. The actual rate move matters, but the tone of the statement matters more. If the RBNZ sounds concerned about inflation persistence, NZD may catch a bid. If growth risks dominate the message, rallies could fade quickly. Liquidity around the release can be thin, so chasing the first candle is not ideal.
• Wednesday, July 8 – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 UTC: The minutes will be scanned for how divided policymakers are on inflation, labor-market cooling and future rate cuts. Markets are already sensitive to any shift in timing expectations. A hawkish read would likely support the dollar and weigh on NAS100 and gold. A softer read could revive risk appetite, but only if bond yields respond lower.
• Friday, July 10 – CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 08:30 UTC: This is the key event for USDCAD and CAD crosses. Canada has been trading heavily around growth and labor-market expectations. A strong jobs report could support CAD and pressure USDCAD lower, especially if oil remains stable. A weak labor print would increase pressure on the Bank of Canada and could lift USDCAD sharply.

Crypto weekend note: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana remain tradable, but weekend liquidity deserves respect. Price can move fast on thinner books, and breakouts are often less reliable until Monday liquidity returns. BTC still sets the tone for the broader market; ETH and SOL can outperform during risk-on windows but usually suffer more when leverage unwinds. For now, the better approach is to treat weekend crypto moves as information, not confirmation, unless volume and funding both support the direction.

For the week ahead, the trading plan is simple: avoid oversized exposure before scheduled news, respect dollar-driven cross-asset moves, and be selective. After last week’s drawdown, capital preservation comes first. The best trades this week are likely to come after the data confirms direction, not before it.