Part 1 — Weekly Recap: Positive Pips, Uneven Execution

Last week finished with a constructive headline result: 53 trades, 453.2 net pips, and activity spread across AUDUSD, GBPNOK, SOLUSD, USDJPY, US30, EURUSD, BTCUSD, NAS100, EURDKK, ETHUSD, XAUUSD, GBPUSD, and USDSEK.

The win-loss profile was not especially clean, with 14 wins and 26 losses. That tells us the week was less about high hit-rate trading and more about extracting enough from the better moves to offset noise, failed continuation, and smaller stop-outs. In practical terms, the strategy survived because the average winner carried more weight than the average loser.

The broad instrument mix also matters. FX majors, Nordic crosses, metals, indices, and crypto do not always respond to the same drivers. That can help diversify opportunity, but it also increases the chance of overtrading if the market is moving on one dominant macro theme. The best takeaway from the week is positive: risk was managed well enough to finish ahead. The sober takeaway is that execution quality still matters, especially when the loss count is elevated.

For the coming week, I would treat this as a reset rather than a green light to increase size automatically. After a profitable but choppy week, the priority is to protect the equity curve, reduce impulse trades around news, and stay selective when liquidity thins.

Part 2 — Global Macro Weekly Outlook

Today is Sunday, so the focus shifts from recap to preparation. The week ahead has several high-impact events that can reset short-term direction across AUD, NZD, USD, GBP, CAD, gold, indices, and crypto sentiment. The calendar is not overloaded, but the timing of the releases makes risk management important, especially around Asia-Pacific trading hours early in the week.

AUD CPI — Tuesday, 26 May at 21:30 UTC: Australia releases monthly CPI, yearly CPI, and trimmed mean CPI. This is the key AUD risk event of the week. A hotter inflation print would likely support AUD in the short term as markets reassess the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path. A softer number could weigh on AUDUSD and AUD crosses, particularly if global risk appetite is also weak. The trimmed mean figure deserves close attention because it gives a cleaner read on underlying inflation pressure.

RBNZ Rate Decision — Tuesday, 26 May at 22:00 UTC, Press Conference at 23:00 UTC: The New Zealand dollar faces a full policy package: Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, and press conference. The rate decision is important, but the tone of the statement and press conference may matter more. NZD pairs can move sharply if the RBNZ signals concern about sticky inflation, weak growth, or the timing of future policy changes. Spreads can widen around the release, so chasing the first move is usually poor risk-reward.

US Core PCE and Preliminary GDP — Thursday, 28 May at 08:30 UTC: This is the main global macro checkpoint. Core PCE remains one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, while preliminary GDP provides a growth pulse. A combination of firm PCE and resilient GDP could support the US dollar and pressure gold, equities, and higher-beta FX. A softer inflation reading with weaker growth would be more complicated: it may initially weaken the dollar, but it could also raise concern about demand and risk appetite.

BOE Governor Bailey Speaks — Friday, 29 May at 04:20 UTC: Sterling traders should watch for any shift in language around inflation persistence, wage growth, and the timing of rate cuts. GBPUSD and GBP crosses can be sensitive if Bailey sounds meaningfully more dovish or more cautious than markets expect.

Canada GDP — Friday, 29 May at 08:30 UTC: CAD risk comes into focus into the end of the week. A stronger GDP print may support CAD, especially if oil sentiment is stable. A weak print could pressure CAD and keep USDCAD bid, particularly if US data earlier in the week supports the dollar.

Weekend crypto commentary: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana remain important risk-sentiment gauges going into the new week. Weekend crypto liquidity is usually thinner, so moves can look cleaner than they really are. I would be cautious about reading too much into a Sunday breakout unless it holds into Monday liquidity. BTCUSD holding key support would help broader risk tone, while a failed weekend push could spill into ETHUSD and SOLUSD quickly. For active traders, the better approach is to map levels today, wait for confirmation after the weekly open, and avoid oversized exposure before the AUD and NZD events.

Overall, the week ahead is likely to reward patience. The cleanest opportunities may come after the first reaction to the data, not during it. With inflation, central bank guidance, and growth data all on the calendar, position sizing should remain conservative until the market shows whether it wants to trade a dollar-strength, risk-on, or risk-off theme.