Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a difficult session, with 9 trades closed for 1 win and 5 losses, ending the day at -136.3 pips. The damage was spread across a mixed book including USDSEK, BTCUSD, EURUSD, NAS100, XAUUSD, EURDKK, ETHUSD, and GBPNOK, which tells us the issue was not isolated to one market. Price action was choppy and conviction faded quickly across both FX and risk assets, a typical environment where intraday breaks fail and correlation shifts punish overexposure. When conditions turn this uneven, the priority is not to force recovery trades but to reduce size, tighten trade selection, and wait for cleaner participation around scheduled catalysts.

Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today is centered on central bank risk, with the Bank of Canada due at 09:45 UTC through its Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement, and Overnight Rate decision, followed by the BOC press conference at 10:30 UTC. Later, the market shifts fully to the United States with the Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement at 14:00 UTC, then the FOMC press conference at 14:30 UTC. This is a classic two-stage volatility day, where early CAD repricing can be overtaken by broader USD direction once the Fed speaks.

The main watchlist asset is USDCAD. If the Bank of Canada leans softer than expected while the Fed remains firm, the pair can extend higher on policy divergence. If the BOC sounds less concerned about easing and the Fed underdelivers on hawkish guidance, the move can reverse sharply. The second asset in focus is XAUUSD. Gold is highly sensitive to shifts in rate expectations, real yields, and the tone of the FOMC press conference. A cautious or dovish Fed can support gold quickly, while a firm inflation-focused message may pressure it lower.

From a trading perspective, this is not the day to chase the first spike. Initial reactions around rate statements are often fast but unreliable, especially when the press conference changes the market’s interpretation. The cleaner approach is to let the first impulse print, identify whether follow-through is real, and then work with confirmed direction rather than headline noise. Risk should stay controlled, because on days like this one comment from a governor or chair can completely reprice the session.