Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a controlled but not especially clean session. We finished with 7 trades, 4 winners and 3 losers, for a net result of +18.0 pips across GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDJPY, GBPJPY and AUDUSD. The main positive was that losses stayed contained; the main takeaway is that follow-through was selective and not every breakout had enough fuel behind it.

FX price action still looks more tactical than directional. USD pairs showed enough movement to create opportunity, but the tape rewarded patience more than aggression. In that kind of environment, forcing entries after the first impulse is usually where good work gets given back.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The main event is the USD CPI block at 08:30 UTC: Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m and CPI y/y all land together. That is a genuine volatility point, not a normal data release. Spreads can widen, first moves can reverse, and stops placed too close to the market are vulnerable before any real direction is confirmed.

GBPUSD is the first asset on watch. A hotter inflation print would likely support the dollar and pressure the pair, while a softer number could trigger a relief move higher. I do not want to chase the first spike; the better setup is usually the retest after liquidity has been swept.

AUDUSD also deserves attention, but for two separate reasons. It will react to the USD CPI during the European and US crossover, then face its own domestic catalyst at 20:30 UTC with Australian Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. If both events point in the same direction, AUDUSD could trend cleanly. If they conflict, expect a choppy two-way session.

Plan for today: reduce size into the red-news windows, avoid holding marginal trades through the release, and wait for structure after the data rather than guessing the number. The opportunity is real, but only if the risk is respected first.