Part 1 — Weekly Trading Desk Recap

Last week was a useful reminder that a positive win count does not automatically translate into a positive trading week. The desk closed 30 trades across AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF, GBPJPY, EURUSD, US500, USDJPY, EURGBP and GBPCHF, finishing with 16 wins, 13 losses and one flat or unclassified result. Net performance was -93.5 pips.

The main takeaway is straightforward: trade selection and loss size mattered more than win rate. Several of the crosses, especially the yen and sterling pairs, continued to move in sharp bursts rather than clean two-way structures. That type of tape can reward quick execution, but it punishes late entries and loose stops. US500 also remained sensitive to rate expectations, which kept equity index setups more dependent on macro headlines than pure technical structure.

From a process perspective, the week was not a disaster, but it was not efficient. A 16-win week should not end materially negative. That points to either taking profits too early, holding losers too long, or forcing marginal setups in pairs where volatility was not paying cleanly. The priority into the new week is to reduce exposure around event risk, demand cleaner confirmation, and avoid stacking correlated positions across USD, JPY and GBP at the same time.

Part 2 — Global Macro Weekly Outlook

Today is Sunday, so the focus now shifts from recap to preparation. The week ahead carries several high-impact events that can reset short-term direction across FX, indices and crypto. The calendar is AUD-heavy early in the week, then pivots to the United States with inflation, growth and labour market data.

Tuesday, 29 September, 00:30 UTC — AUD Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement: The Reserve Bank of Australia decision is the first major event of the week. For AUDUSD, the rate decision itself matters, but the tone of the statement may matter more. If the RBA keeps a cautious inflation bias, AUD can find support, especially against weaker European currencies. If the statement leans more comfortable with disinflation or growth risks, rallies in AUDUSD may struggle. AUDJPY and GBPAUD can also see exaggerated moves due to thinner Asia-session liquidity.

Tuesday, 29 September, 21:30 UTC — Australian CPI m/m, CPI y/y and Trimmed Mean CPI m/m: This is the second major AUD risk event on the same day. The trimmed mean figure is especially important because it gives a cleaner read on underlying inflation. A hot inflation print after a firm RBA statement would likely amplify AUD upside. A soft CPI print could quickly reverse any earlier RBA-driven strength. Traders should be careful with holding AUD exposure overnight because the combination of central bank guidance and inflation data can create a two-stage repricing.

Wednesday, 30 September, 08:30 UTC — US Core PCE Price Index m/m and Final GDP q/q: Core PCE remains one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges. A firmer print can support the dollar and pressure US500 if yields move higher. A softer print may weaken USD and support risk assets, but only if GDP does not raise new concerns about growth quality. EURUSD and GBPUSD will likely respond directly, while USDJPY may react through the yield channel.

Friday, 2 October, 08:30 UTC — US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate: NFP is the main event of the week. The market will not only look at the headline jobs number. Wage growth and the unemployment rate will shape the bigger interpretation. Strong payrolls with sticky wages would keep the dollar supported and could weigh on equities. Weak payrolls with rising unemployment would likely fuel rate-cut expectations, but risk appetite may not improve if the data looks recessionary rather than simply cooling. This is a classic environment for false first moves, so chasing the initial candle is not the plan.

For the FX desk, the cleanest approach is to treat the week in two blocks: AUD event risk early, USD event risk later. AUDUSD will sit at the intersection of both stories, making it a high-opportunity but high-risk pair. USDJPY remains highly sensitive to US yields, while EURUSD may offer cleaner dollar expression if European headlines stay quiet. Sterling pairs should be traded selectively, as GBP volatility can expand quickly when dollar repricing meets domestic uncertainty.

Weekend crypto commentary: Crypto remains a useful real-time gauge of risk appetite over the weekend, but weekend liquidity is thinner and price moves can be less reliable. Bitcoin and Ethereum should be watched for whether they hold bid into the Sunday close or fade as traditional markets prepare to reopen. A firm crypto tape into Monday would support a mild risk-on tone, but it should not be treated as confirmation ahead of RBA, PCE and NFP. If crypto sells off into the weekly open, it may be an early warning that traders are reducing risk before the macro calendar.

The bottom line: this is not a week to overtrade. The calendar has enough event risk to create opportunity, but also enough volatility to punish poor timing. Our bias is to trade smaller before the data, wait for confirmation after the releases, and respect the fact that market direction can change quickly when inflation, central banks and employment all hit in the same week.