Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a modestly negative session, but not a damaging one. We closed 6 trades with 2 winners and 4 losers for a net result of -7.9 pips across AUDCHF, US500, EURUSD, GBPJPY and AUDUSD. The main issue was not a single large loss, but a lack of clean follow-through. Several setups began reasonably, then stalled as liquidity thinned ahead of today’s major central bank risk.

That kind of session is a reminder to stay selective. When the market is waiting for inflation data and the FOMC, intraday moves can look convincing but fail quickly. The priority now is not to force recovery trades, but to protect capital and wait for cleaner post-news structure.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s calendar is heavy. GBP CPI y/y lands at 02:00 UTC, followed by the main event: the USD Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Economic Projections and FOMC Statement at 14:00 UTC, then the FOMC Press Conference at 14:30 UTC. Later, NZD GDP q/q at 18:45 UTC may add volatility into the Asia-Pacific open.

The two assets I am watching most closely are EURUSD and US500. EURUSD should react directly to any shift in Fed pricing, especially if the statement or projections challenge the market’s rate expectations. US500 is more sensitive to the tone of the press conference: a dovish hold may support risk appetite, while a firm inflation message could pressure equities and lift volatility.

Plan for wider spreads, false breaks and sharp reversals around the FOMC window. Pre-news trading should be lighter than usual. The cleaner opportunity may come after the first reaction, once price chooses a side and confirms whether the move is being accepted or faded.