Part 1: Previous Session Recap

Yesterday was a clean and selective session. We took one trade, won one, and finished with +41.0 net pips on EURJPY. That is the kind of result I prefer to see when the calendar is not offering a clear reason to force exposure: one planned setup, controlled execution, and no unnecessary second-guessing after the win.

EURJPY offered enough directional structure to justify the entry, but the broader market was not especially forgiving for traders chasing late moves. The main takeaway is simple: when volatility is uneven, trade location matters more than frequency. Yesterday rewarded patience, not activity.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s high-impact calendar is more demanding. At 10:00 UTC, the market gets the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which can move the dollar quickly if the print changes expectations around growth, inflation pressure, or future Fed pricing. Later, the Asia-Pacific session carries heavier event risk with AUD GDP q/q at 21:30 UTC, followed by the full RBNZ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, and press conference from 22:00 to 23:00 UTC.

My main watchlist is NZDUSD and AUDUSD. For NZDUSD, the risk is not just the Official Cash Rate itself, but the tone of the RBNZ statement and press conference. A hold can still be hawkish or dovish depending on forward guidance, inflation language, and how the Bank frames domestic demand. For AUDUSD, GDP can set the tone before the RBNZ event, especially if the number materially shifts expectations around the RBA path.

From a trading standpoint, I do not want to be heavily exposed into the release windows. These events can create sharp first moves, fast reversals, and wider spreads, particularly around NZD pairs late in the day. The better approach is to let the initial volatility clear, identify whether price is accepting above or below key intraday levels, and then look for continuation only if liquidity and structure support it.

Bias for the day: stay flexible, respect the calendar, and avoid treating the first spike as confirmation. If the data and central bank tone line up with price structure, there may be opportunity. If they conflict, capital preservation comes first.