Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a small red day rather than a structural problem. We closed 5 trades across EURUSD and GBPJPY, with 2 winners and 3 losers, finishing at -15.7 net pips. The main takeaway is that follow-through was inconsistent: entries that looked acceptable on the first push did not extend cleanly, and the market punished trades held too long after momentum faded.

EURUSD remained sensitive to dollar repricing ahead of today’s US data, while GBPJPY was already carrying event-risk premium into the Bank of England and Bank of Japan window. In that kind of tape, the right response is not to force recovery trades. It is to tighten selection, reduce size around headlines, and wait for the market to show where liquidity is actually building.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s calendar is heavy enough to define the session. The Bank of England releases its Monetary Policy Report, policy summary, vote split, and Official Bank Rate at 07:00 UTC, followed by Governor Bailey at 08:00 UTC. Thirty minutes later, the US releases Advance GDP q/q and Core PCE Price Index m/m. Later, at 22:30 UTC, the Bank of Japan delivers its policy rate and statement, followed by the outlook report.

GBPJPY is the cleanest high-risk watch. The pair sits directly in the path of both BOE and BOJ risk, so spreads, slippage, and false breaks should be expected. I am not interested in predicting the vote or the tone; I am interested in the reaction. A strong directional break that holds after the first volatility spike is tradable. A whip through both sides of the range is a no-trade signal.

EURUSD remains a secondary watch around the US GDP and Core PCE release. Stronger growth or firmer inflation would likely support the dollar and pressure EURUSD lower, while softer numbers could open room for a relief move. The key is to avoid entering during the first impulse unless liquidity is clear. Let the initial spread widening pass, then look for a retest or failed continuation.

For today, the priority is capital protection. Use smaller size before the news, avoid stacking correlated exposure, and do not treat headline volatility as normal technical price action. The best trades may come after the data, not before it.