Part 1: Previous Session Review

Yesterday was a clean and contained session for the desk. We took one trade in USDJPY, closed it as a winner, and finished with +24.0 net pips. That is the kind of result we want to protect rather than over-explain. The move was tradable because price respected structure and momentum followed through without forcing us into a late chase.

The broader tone was still cautious. Dollar pairs were sensitive to positioning ahead of today’s US inflation and growth data, so the best edge came from patience and selective execution. One good trade was enough; there was no need to manufacture additional risk in thinner conditions.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

The focus today is firmly on the US data block at 08:30 UTC, with Core PCE Price Index m/m and Final GDP q/q both due. Core PCE is the more sensitive number for rate expectations, while GDP can either confirm or challenge the current growth narrative. If both prints lean in the same direction, USD volatility can expand quickly.

USDJPY remains the first asset on the watchlist after yesterday’s successful trade. A stronger PCE print could support the dollar and keep buyers active, but we do not want to buy into exhausted highs without a pullback or clear breakout acceptance. If the data disappoints, failed upside pressure could trigger a sharper unwind.

Gold is also worth watching. XAUUSD may react aggressively if yields and the dollar move together after the release. A hot inflation print could pressure gold through higher real-rate expectations, while a softer number may give bulls room to reclaim short-term resistance.

Our plan is simple: reduce exposure before the release, wait for the first reaction to clear, then trade the structure that remains. News candles are not signals by themselves. The better opportunity usually comes after liquidity is swept and direction becomes more honest.