Part 1: Weekly Performance Recap

Last week was a useful reminder that win rate is only one part of the equation. The book closed with 10 trades, 6 winners and 4 losers, but the net result was still -453.8 pips across NZDUSD, BTCUSD, US500, ETHUSD, AUDUSD and NAS100.

The main takeaway is straightforward: the losing trades carried more weight than the winning trades. That is not unusual in a mixed week where FX, crypto and equity indices are all in play, but it does require discipline. When indices and crypto are moving with wider ranges, position sizing and stop placement need to reflect the actual volatility, not the average conditions we would prefer to see.

From a market-structure perspective, there was no need to force conclusions from one difficult week. The 60% win rate shows that direction was often readable, but execution quality and downside containment were not good enough. The focus going into the new week is cleaner selectivity, smaller exposure around major data, and no attempt to recover losses through oversized trades.

Part 2: Global Macro Weekly Outlook

Because today is Sunday, the priority is preparation rather than prediction. This week brings several high-impact inflation and growth releases that can reset short-term expectations across CAD, AUD, USD, indices and crypto risk sentiment.

Monday, June 22 – Canada CPI at 08:30 UTC: Canada releases CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y and Trimmed CPI y/y. The headline monthly number will matter, but the Bank of Canada and CAD traders will likely focus heavily on the median and trimmed measures because they give a better read on underlying inflation pressure. A hotter set of numbers could support CAD and pressure USDCAD lower, while a softer print may revive rate-cut expectations. CAD pairs can be choppy around this release, so spreads and stop distance matter.

Tuesday, June 23 – Australia CPI at 21:30 UTC: Australia reports CPI m/m, CPI y/y and Trimmed Mean CPI m/m. This is the first major AUD risk event of the week. If inflation proves sticky, AUDUSD and AUD crosses could catch a bid as markets reassess the Reserve Bank of Australia path. If the data cools meaningfully, AUD may struggle, especially if the US dollar is firm at the same time. The timing also matters: 21:30 UTC can bring thinner liquidity for some participants, which increases the risk of sharp initial moves.

Wednesday, June 24 – Australia labour market at 21:30 UTC: Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate follow one day after CPI. This creates a two-step AUD setup. A strong CPI print followed by firm jobs data would be a more convincing hawkish combination. A mixed outcome, however, may produce whipsaw rather than trend. AUD trades should be planned around both releases, not treated as isolated events.

Thursday, June 25 – US Core PCE and Final GDP at 08:30 UTC: This is the key global macro event of the week. Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and even a small surprise can move US yields, the dollar, gold, equity indices and crypto. Final GDP q/q will help confirm the growth backdrop, but PCE is likely to be the cleaner catalyst. Hotter inflation can pressure NAS100 and US500 through higher yield expectations, while a softer reading may support risk assets if growth does not look too weak.

For trading, the practical approach is to reduce size before the releases, avoid entering during the first spread-widening impulse, and wait for confirmation after the initial liquidity sweep. The market often gives a cleaner second opportunity once the first reaction has been absorbed.

Weekend crypto note: BTCUSD and ETHUSD remain highly sensitive to broader risk appetite, but weekend price action should be treated with caution. Liquidity is thinner, order books can be easier to push, and breakouts before the futures reopen are not always reliable. If crypto holds bid into Monday while equities remain stable, that would support a constructive risk tone. If weekend strength fades quickly after traditional markets reopen, it is better to view it as a liquidity move rather than a true shift in demand.

The week ahead is data-heavy but tradable if we stay patient. The best opportunities are likely to come after the numbers, not before them.