Part 1: Previous Session Review

The 16 June session was handled with restraint. We executed 0 trades and kept capital preservation mode active, which was the correct posture ahead of a dense central bank calendar. Price action across major FX pairs was mostly positioning-driven rather than clean trend development, with liquidity pockets likely being shaped by traders reducing exposure before the Federal Reserve decision.

From a trading perspective, the key takeaway is simple: no trade was better than forcing a marginal setup. When markets are waiting for high-impact macro confirmation, spreads can widen, intraday ranges can distort, and technical levels become less reliable. Protecting capital leaves us flexible for cleaner opportunities after the news risk is absorbed.

Part 2: Today’s Outlook & Watchlist

Today’s calendar is heavy. The first focus is GBP CPI y/y at 02:00 UTC, which can set the early tone for sterling. A hotter inflation print could support GBP/USD on expectations of a more cautious Bank of England path, while a softer reading may invite renewed selling pressure. We will watch GBP/USD closely, but only after the first volatility burst settles.

The main event is the US Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and press conference from 14:00 UTC onward. The rate decision may be less important than the dots, inflation language, and Powell’s tone. XAU/USD is firmly on the watchlist because gold is likely to react sharply to any change in real-rate expectations or dollar direction.

Late in the session, NZD GDP q/q at 18:45 UTC can create a separate volatility pocket for New Zealand dollar pairs. Overall, this is not a day for oversized positioning. Our approach is to wait for confirmation, respect wider ranges, and avoid chasing the first candle after the headlines.